Dynamic Delphi Decision Making

A module to improve the ability to make decisions in complex scenarios.

Summary

Increasingly, extreme events demand large groups of experts distributed in both location and time to communicate, plan, and coordinate actions. When responding to extreme events, very often there are both alternative actions that might be considered and far more requests for actions than can be executed immediately. The relative desirability of each option for action could be a collaborative expression of a significant number of emergency managers and experts trying to manage the most desirable alternatives at any given time, in real time. This same decision process could be used for a number of tasks but will be designed for distributed dynamic decision making during time critical phases of extreme events. This is because our proposed system is specially designed to save time, remove ambiguities, and decrease uncertainty, major challenges described in the literature on time critical decision making during the volatile time critical phases of emergency.

User Stories

• People can contribute ideas to a list
• People can vote on ideas (which are then represented by a sliding scale)
• People can revote (their first initial vote is kept, present vote, then a new vote (which is compared to the present vote and updated))

• Each item is voted upon with paired comparisons which produces a rank.
• A calculation for uncertainty is done: everyone who can vote - those who did

So there are two scales:

• one from the calculation from Thurstone (of which code is available for the unit normal conversion table)
• one with this, but including uncertainty (those who didn't vote).

Implementation

I think the major part is a lot of nested arrays.

Background Reading

Need to request access:

• ​http://sites.google.com/site/conniemwhite/Home/google-summer-of-code-proposal

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BluePrints