|Version 9 (modified by 12 years ago) ( diff ),|
Dynamic Delphi Decision Making
A module to improve the ability to make decisions in complex scenarios. This module considers a problem and helps a group discuss and rank a group of alternatives into a ranked list which provides information on the items in respect to one another (how much more one is desired over the other) and also considers uncertainty by showing the users how the items in the list are affected.
Increasingly, extreme events demand large groups of experts distributed in both location and time to communicate, plan, and coordinate actions. When responding to extreme events, very often there are both alternative actions that might be considered and far more requests for actions than can be executed immediately. The relative desirability of each option for action could be a collaborative expression of a significant number of emergency managers and experts trying to manage the most desirable alternatives at any given time, in real time. This same decision process could be used for a number of tasks but will be designed for distributed dynamic decision making during time critical phases of extreme events. This is because our proposed system is specially designed to save time, remove ambiguities, and decrease uncertainty, major challenges described in the literature on time critical decision making during the volatile time critical phases of emergency.
- People can contribute ideas to a list
- People can vote on ideas (which are then represented by a sliding scale)
- People can revote (their first initial vote is kept, present vote, then a new vote (which is compared to the present vote and updated))
- Each item is voted upon with paired comparisons which produces a rank.
- A calculation for uncertainty is done: everyone who can vote - those who did
So there are three scales:
- one from the calculation from Thurstone (of which code is available for the unit normal conversion table)which takes many individual votes and calculates one group opinion.
- one with this, but including uncertainty (those who didn't vote) showing the best case outcome (if all votes go in favor of that item).
- and then the third shows the opposing side (uncertainty) where the items will stand on a vote given they receive no more votes.
I think the major part is a lot of nested arrays.
A Dynamic Delphi Process Utilizing a Modified Thurstone Scaling Method: Collaborative Judgment in Emergency Response
The Formal Research Proposal
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- CollExpJud.pdf (169.5 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- ThurstoneScale.png (94.5 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- ThurstoneScale.2.jpg (32.3 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- ThurstoneScale.jpg (32.3 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- dm5.jpg (32.0 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- dm6.jpg (46.9 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- dm3.jpg (57.0 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- ItemSelectionUI.jpg (48.6 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- homeUI.jpg (149.2 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
- pairCompUI.jpg (98.6 KB ) - added by 12 years ago.
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